Galbally (@1.5) vs Pomeroy (@2.88)
06-10-2019

Our Prediction:

Galbally will win

Galbally – Pomeroy Match Prediction | 06-10-2019 11:00

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(The other meetings need not be after the overtime game but nonetheless will be referred to as rematches for simplicity.) The correlation between scoring margin in the overtime game and scoring margin in the rematch (adjusted for home court) is 0.16. The simplest way to demonstrate this is to look at all overtime games where the teams met again during the season.

But its also true that is would be career suicide to publicly criticize a legendary head coach in the middle of the NCAA tournament. So even if Henry has second thoughts, he really doesnt have a choice but to be supportive given that Tom Izzo is one of the most powerful men in basketball and Henry is, well, not. And having complete faith that his coach knows what hes doing is understandable given Izzos track record. I would guess Henry is sincere here. After all, his path to an NBA career can be greatly helped by Tom Izzo.

With Purdue and Auburn in the Elite Eight, theres a lot of talk about how far theyve come from the depths of their season. But those depths are fabrications of the AP poll. To illustrate lets look at each of the teams in the Elite Eight by their worst ranking in the AP poll since 12/31 and compare that to the worst ranking in my system on the same days that the AP poll was released.

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The simplest proof that overtime data is useful (and that garbage time exists)

On kenpom.com: "The first thing you should know about this system is that it is designed to be purely predictive. Admittedly, kenpom is the leader in college basketball metrics. If youre looking for a system that rates teams on how 'good' their season has been, youve come to the wrong place." I recently tried to express interest in how well kenpom ... It is not, however, the end-all-be-all.